This has got to be the only tolerable way to watch major-label artists and LL Cool J argue about legacy and dresses. Prop bets! For the same reason that real sports bettors actually don’t actually care about the SuperBowl, many critics such as myself only watch the Grammys for the off chance that a dark horse comes out of nowhere and wins a major award. A great example being the shit-storm kicked up when Herbie Hancock won in 2008 beating out favorites Kanye West and Amy Winehouse :
Miracles can happen! And, hey, may as well make a few bucks doing it! That is, if you can find someone to take those bets, as Wynn Las Vegas only releases these odds for entertainment purposes.
Album of the Year
“Beyonce” by Beyonce – 6/5
“In The Lonely Hour” by Sam Smith – 8/5
“X” by Ed Sheeran – 6/1
“Morning Phase” by Beck – 15/1
“Girl” by Pharrell Williams – 18/1
Easy money here is on Beyonce, but Sam Smith has a good shot at taking this one. However, the video-album, ‘drop-it-like-it-ain’t-no-thang’ thing that Beyonce did may put her over the top. Depending on how Sam Smith does earlier in the night, this one could be a toss-up.
Record of The Year
Stay With Me (Darkchild Version), Sam Smith – 4/5
Chandelier, Sia – 9/2
Fancy, Iggy Azalea ft. Charli XCX – 20/1
Shake It Off, Taylor Swift – 9/5
All About That Bass, Meghan Trainor – 25/1
This one is a shoe in for Sam Smith – without a question. The problem with this is that he’s a favorite in most categories but I don’t see him sweeping like Adele did in 2013. Watch out for Meghan Trainor or Taylor Swift stealing this one, but without Album of the Year, this is Sam Smith’s category all the way.
Pick: Stay With Me (Darkchild Version), Sam Smith
Song of the Year
Stay With Me (Darkchild Version), Sam Smith – 5/6
Take Me To Church, Hozier – 5/2
Chadelier, Sia – 4/1
Shake It Off, Taylor Swift – 8/1
All About That Bass, MEghan Trainor – 12/1
Even though you actually can’t, I would suggest betting the farm on “Shake It Off” in this category. She is coming out with at least one award this time around. She would’ve been the hands down favorite to sweep had it not been for Sam Smith, but, them the breaks.
Pick: Shake It Off, Taylor Swift
Best New Artist
Sam Smith – 1/5
Iggy Azalea – 5/1
Haim – 22/1
Brandy Clark – 30/1
Bastille – 35/1
This is another guaranteed win for Sam Smith, only because they’ve got to give him more than one. Also, because I believe that Iggy Azalea will be completely shut out this year (deservedly or not). Dark horses in this category are Haim and Bastille although I really don’t think they’ve got much of a chance. However, if we’ve learned anything from this category, it’s that absolutely anything can happen.
Pick: Sam Smith
Best Rap Album
“The New Classic”, Iggy Azalea – 2/1
“Oxymoron”, Schoolboy Q – 5/2
“The Marshall Mathers LP 2”, Eminem – 7/2
“Nobody’s Smiling”, Common – 9/1
“Blacc Hollywood”, Wiz Khalifa – 10/1
“Because The Internet”, Childish Gambino – 15/1
My underdog pick of the evening, Childish Gambino will take this one. Not only because it is arguably the strongest album on this list, but it also is 1) not Iggy (who again, will be shut out), and 2) is someone ‘the academy’ can cross-over to the mainstream and sell long-term, and an early career Grammy win will kickstart sales for a LP which is expected later this year. This’ll be a weird combination of “he’s the best option anyway”/”that was all politics” win.
Pick: “Because the Internet”, Childish Gambino
Best Rock Album
“Turn Blue”, Black Keys – 9/5
“Morning Phase”, Beck – 5/2
“Songs Of Innocence”, U2 – 7/2
“Hypnotic Eye”, Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers – 7/1
“Ryan Adams”, Ryan Adams – 10/1
Probably the weakest major category this year and the odds show it. Even Vegas can’t figure out who is the clear cut favorite from this crap-heap. If you wanted to see the craziest Twitter freak-out of all time watch U2 take this one. After the ‘free’ (aka ‘forced’) download debacle of their absolutely terrible album it would be a slap in the face to see Bono take home any more hardware.
Pick: “Morning Phase”, Beck
Grammy Special – How many Grammy’s will Sam Smith be awarded?
Over 3 (+150)
Under 3 (-200)
As much as I want to say the under, by also being nominated for Best Vocal Album, it’s pretty obvious he’s going to get 3+.